Short-Term Effects of Extreme Meteorological Factors on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Infection During 2010-2017 in Jiangsu, China: A Distributed Lag Non-Linear Analysis.

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease that primarily affects young children. In densely populated Jiangsu Province in China, the impact of extreme meteorological factors on HFMD is a concern. We aimed to examine the association between extreme meteorological variables and HFMD infection risk using daily HFMD infections and meteorological data from 2010 to 2017 in Jiangsu Province. We used distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to analyze the data, which can effectively capture the nuanced non-linear dynamics and lag effects in the relationship between HFMD and extreme meteorological factors. Comparing the 10th and 90th percentiles of meteorological variables with their respective median values, our results showed that extremely low temperatures and high humidity were significantly associated with increased HFMD infection risk. The greatest effect of extremely low temperatures was observed at a lag of 1-2 days, elevating the risk by 18 âˆ¼ 33% (RR = 1.18 âˆ¼ 1.33). Extremely high humidity was found to increase the risk of infection, starting at a lag of 4 days. In contrast, extremely high temperatures, low humidity, and high wind speed were associated with reduced risk of infection at lag of 0-12 days, with the range of RR values being 0.60-0.98 for extremely high temperatures, 0.69-0.89 for extremely low humidity, and 0.84-0.98 for extremely high wind speed respectively. Our findings suggest that extreme meteorological factors can significantly impact the incidence of HFMD in Jiangsu Province, and highlight the need for effective public health protection measures during the periods of extreme meteorological condition, particularly for vulnerable populations.

MST1/2 exerts a pivotal role in inducing neuroinflammation and Coxsackievirus-A10 replication by interacting with innate immunity.

Coxsackievirus-A10 (CV-A10), responsible for the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) pandemic, could cause serious central nervous system (CNS) complications. The underlying molecular basis of CV-A10 and host interactions inducing neuropathogenesis is still unclear. The Hippo signaling pathway, historically known for a dominator of organ development and homeostasis, has recently been implicated as an immune regulator. However, its role in host defense against CV-A10 has not been investigated. Herein, it was found that CV-A10 proliferated in HMC3 cells and promoted the release of inflammatory cytokines. Moreover, pattern recognition receptors (PRRs)-mediated pathways, including TLR3-TRIF-TRAF3-TBK1-NF-κB axis, RIG-I/MDA5-MAVS-TRAF3-TBK1-NF-κB axis and TLR7-MyD88-IRAK1/IRAK4-TRAF6-TAK1-NF-κB axis, were examined to be elevated under CV-A10 infection. Meanwhile, it was further uncovered that Hippo signaling pathway was inhibited in HMC3 cells with CV-A10 infection. Previous studies have been reported that there exist complex relations between innate immune and Hippo signaling pathway. Then, plasmids of knockdown and overexpression of MST1/2 were transfected into HMC3 cells. Our results showed that MST1/2 suppressed the levels of inflammatory cytokines via interacting with TBK1 and IRAK1, and also enhanced virus production via restricting IRF3 and IFN-ß expressions. Overall, these data obviously pointed out that CV-A10 accelerated the formation of neuroinflammation by the effect of the Hippo pathway on the PRRs-mediated pathway, which delineates a negative immunoregulatory role for MST1/2 in CV-A10 infection and the potential for this pathway to be pharmacologically targeted to treat CV-A10.

Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and interventions on hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhengzhou, China, 2014-2022: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the world, and studies have shown that measures to prevent COVID-19 can largely reduce the spread of other infectious diseases. This study explored the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and interventions on the incidence of HFMD. METHODS: We gathered data on the prevalence of HFMD from the Children's Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was constructed using HFMD incidence data from 2014 to 2019, the number of cases predicted from 2020 to 2022 was predicted, and the predicted values were compared with the actual measurements. RESULTS: From January 2014 to October 2022, the Children's Hospital of Zhengzhou University admitted 103,995 children with HFMD. The average number of cases of HFMD from 2020 to 2022 was 4,946, a significant decrease from 14,859 cases from 2014 to 2019. We confirmed the best ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,1,0)12 model. From 2020 to 2022, the yearly number of cases decreased by 46.58%, 75.54%, and 66.16%, respectively, compared with the forecasted incidence. Trends in incidence across sexes and ages displayed patterns similar to those overall. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 outbreak and interventions reduced the incidence of HFMD compared to that before the outbreak. Strengthening public health interventions remains a priority in the prevention of HFMD.

Identification of fangchinoline as a broad-spectrum enterovirus inhibitor through reporter virus based high-content screening.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common pediatric illness mainly caused by enteroviruses, which are important human pathogens. Currently, there are no available antiviral agents for the therapy of enterovirus infection. In this study, an excellent high-content antiviral screening system utilizing the EV-A71-eGFP reporter virus was developed. Using this screening system, we screened a drug library containing 1042 natural compounds to identify potential EV-A71 inhibitors. Fangchinoline (FAN), a bis-benzylisoquinoline alkaloid, exhibits potential inhibitory effects against various enteroviruses that cause HFMD, such as EV-A71, CV-A10, CV-B3 and CV-A16. Further investigations revealed that FAN targets the early stage of the enterovirus life cycle. Through the selection of FAN-resistant EV-A71 viruses, we demonstrated that the VP1 protein could be a potential target of FAN, as two mutations in VP1 (E145G and V258I) resulted in viral resistance to FAN. Our research suggests that FAN is an efficient inhibitor of EV-A71 and has the potential to be a broad-spectrum antiviral drug against human enteroviruses.

Effectiveness of Enterovirus 71 inactivated vaccines against hand, foot, and mouth disease: A test-negative case-control study.

The Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) vaccine was introduced in China in December 2015 as a preventive measure against hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) caused by EV-A71. However, the effectiveness of the vaccine (VE) in real-world settings needs to be evaluated. We conducted a test-negative case-control study to assess the effectiveness of EV-A71 vaccines in preventing EV-A71-associated HFMD. Children aged 6-71 months with HFMD were enrolled as participants. The case group comprised those who tested positive for EV-A71, while the control group comprised those who tested negative for EV-A71. To estimate VE, a logistic regression model was employed, adjusting for potential confounders including age, gender, and clinical severity. In total, 3223 children aged 6 to 71 months were included in the study, with 162 in the case group and 3061 in the control group. The proportion of children who received EV-A71 vaccination was significantly lower in the case group compared to the control group (p < .001). The overall VEadj was estimated to be 90.8%. The VEadj estimates for partially and fully vaccinated children were 90.1% and 90.9%, respectively. Stratified by age group, the VEadj estimates were 88.7% for 6 to 35-month-olds and 95.5% for 36 to 71-month-olds. Regarding disease severity, the VEadj estimates were 86.3% for mild cases and 100% for severe cases. Sensitivity analysis showed minimal changes in the VE point estimates, with most changing by no more than 1% point. Our study demonstrates a high level of vaccine effectiveness against EV-A71-HFMD, especially in severe cases. Active promotion of EV-A71 vaccination is an effective strategy in preventing EV-A71 infections.

Effectiveness of enterovirus A71 vaccine against pediatric HFMD and disease profile of post-vaccination infection.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination has been proven effective against infection with enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) in clinical trials, but vaccine effectiveness in real-world situations remains incompletely understood. Furthermore, it is not clear whether previous vaccination will result in symptom attenuation among post-vaccinated cases. METHODS: Based on long-term data extracted from the only designed referral hospital for infectious diseases, we used a test-negative case-control design and multivariate logistic regression models to analyze the effectiveness of EV-A71 vaccine against hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). And then, generalized linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations between prior vaccination and disease profiles. RESULTS: We selected 4883 inpatients for vaccine efficacy estimations and 2188 inpatients for disease profile comparisons. Vaccine effectiveness against EV-A71-induced HFMD for complete vaccination was 63.4 % and 51.7 % for partial vaccination. The vaccine effectiveness was higher among cases received the first dose within 12 months. No protection was observed against coxsackievirus (CV) A6-, CV-A10- or CV-A16-associated HFMD among children regardless of vaccination status. Completely vaccinated cases had shorter hospital stay and disease course compared to unvaccinated cases (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These findings reiterate the need to continue the development of a multivalent vaccine or combined vaccines, and have implications for introducing optimized vaccination strategies.

Age-time-specific transmission of hand-foot-and-mouth disease enterovirus serotypes in Vietnam: A catalytic model with maternal immunity.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is highly prevalent in the Asia Pacific region, particularly in Vietnam. To develop effective interventions and efficient vaccination programs, we inferred the age-time-specific transmission patterns of HFMD serotypes enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A10 (CV-A10), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam from a case data collected during 2013-2018 and a serological survey data collected in 2015 and 2017. We proposed a catalytic model framework with good adaptability to incorporate maternal immunity using various mathematical functions. Our results indicate the high-level transmission of CV-A6 and CV-A10 which is not obvious in the case data, due to the variation of disease severity across serotypes. Our results provide statistical evidence supporting the strong association between severe illness and CV-A6 and EV-A71 infections. The HFMD dynamic pattern presents a cyclical pattern with large outbreaks followed by a decline in subsequent years. Additionally, we identify the age group with highest risk of infection as 1-2 years and emphasise the risk of future outbreaks as over 50% of children aged 6-7 years were estimated to be susceptible to CV-A16 and EV-A71. Our study highlights the importance of multivalent vaccines and active surveillance for different serotypes, supports early vaccination prior to 1 year old, and points out the potential utility for vaccinating children older than 5 years old in Vietnam.

Feasibility of wearable monitors to detect heart rate variability in children with hand, foot and mouth disease.

Hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is caused by a variety of enteroviruses, and occurs in large outbreaks in which a small proportion of children deteriorate rapidly with cardiopulmonary failure. Determining which children are likely to deteriorate is difficult and health systems may become overloaded during outbreaks as many children require hospitalization for monitoring. Heart rate variability (HRV) may help distinguish those with more severe diseases but requires simple scalable methods to collect ECG data.We carried out a prospective observational study to examine the feasibility of using wearable devices to measure HRV in 142 children admitted with HFMD at a children's hospital in Vietnam. ECG data were collected in all children. HRV indices calculated were lower in those with enterovirus A71 associated HFMD compared to those with other viral pathogens.HRV analysis collected from wearable devices is feasible in a low and middle income country (LMIC) and may help classify disease severity in HFMD.

Simultaneous detection of dual microRNAs related to EV71 using ICP-MS based on metal nanoparticle labeling with hybridization chain reaction.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth (HMFD) disease caused by enterovirus 71 (EV 71), is closely associated with severe clinical manifestations and can be deadly. Early detection of EV 71 can be achieved by detecting the increment in miR296 and miR16 in the serum. Using HCR to amplify signals and convert biological signals into metal nanoparticle signals detectable by ICP-MS is a detection method that can collect more accurate and reliable information, compared with traditional methods, in the detection of biological samples. RESULTS: We described a strategy for the simultaneous detection of miR296 and miR16 by ICP-MS based on metal nanoparticles (NPs) labeling with HCR. Briefly, single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) and magnetic beads (MBs), as well as NPs and signal probes for miRNA (Sp-miR) were firstly conjugated via the streptavidin-biotin recognition system, constituting ssDNA-MBs and NPs-Sp-miR complex, respectively. The latter complex then hybridized with the former through HCR, generating the nanosensors for targets. Then, the targets were added and hybridized with ssDNA, and the HCR complex with NPs was released into the solution. Finally, the corresponding signals of the NPs were measured by ICP-MS. Results demonstrated that the developed method had good sensitivity and satisfactory selectivity and precision. Furthermore, when applied to biological samples with a complex matrix, the developed method also showed good recovery (88 % - 92 %) and reproducibility (RSD<10 %). SIGNIFICANCE: This method contributes to the early diagnosis of HFMD and opens up ideas for the further development of high-throughput biomarker detection. The strategy has practical potential for miR296 and miR16 detection in biological samples and provides a promising tool for multiple miRNA detection.

Coxsackievirus B3 HFMD animal models in Syrian hamster and rhesus monkey.

Coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) is the pathogen causing hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), which manifests across a spectrum of clinical severity from mild to severe. However, CVB3-infected mouse models mainly demonstrate viral myocarditis and pancreatitis, failing to replicate human HFMD symptoms. Although several enteroviruses have been evaluated in Syrian hamsters and rhesus monkeys, there is no comprehensive data on CVB3. In this study, we have first tested the susceptibility of Syrian hamsters to CVB3 infection via different routes. The results showed that Syrian hamsters were successfully infected with CVB3 by intraperitoneal injection or nasal drip, leading to nasopharyngeal colonization, acute severe pathological injury, and typical HFMD symptoms. Notably, the nasal drip group exhibited a longer viral excretion cycle and more severe pathological damage. In the subsequent study, rhesus monkeys infected with CVB3 through nasal drips also presented signs of HFMD symptoms, viral excretion, serum antibody conversion, viral nucleic acids and antigens, and the specific organ damages, particularly in the heart. Surprisingly, there were no significant differences in myocardial enzyme levels, and the clinical symptoms resembled those often associated with common, mild infections. In summary, the study successfully developed severe Syrian hamsters and mild rhesus monkey models for CVB3-induced HFMD. These models could serve as a basis for understanding the disease pathogenesis, conducting pre-trial prevention and evaluation, and implementing post-exposure intervention.

A screening study on the detection strain of Coxsackievirus A6: the key to evaluating neutralizing antibodies in vaccines.

The increasing incidence of diseases caused by Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) and the presence of various mutants in the population present significant public health challenges. Given the concurrent development of multiple vaccines in China, it is challenging to objectively and accurately evaluate the level of neutralizing antibody response to different vaccines. The choice of the detection strain is a crucial factor that influences the detection of neutralizing antibodies. In this study, the National Institutes for Food and Drug Control collected a prototype strain (Gdula), one subgenotype D1, as well as 13 CV-A6 candidate vaccine strains and candidate detection strains (subgenotype D3) from various institutions and manufacturers involved in research and development. We evaluated cross-neutralization activity using plasma from naturally infected adults (n = 30) and serum from rats immunized with the aforementioned CV-A6 strains. Although there were differences between the geometric mean titer (GMT) ranges of human plasma and murine sera, the overall trends were similar. A significant effect of each strain on the neutralizing antibody test (MAX/MIN 48.0 ∼16410.3) was observed. Among all strains, neutralization of the S112 strain by 15 different sera resulted in higher neutralizing antibody titers (GMTS112 = 132.0) and more consistent responses across different genotypic immune sera (MAX/MIN = 48.0). Therefore, S112 may serve as a detection strain for NtAb testing in various vaccines, minimizing bias and making it suitable for evaluating the immunogenicity of the CV-A6 vaccine.

The non-stationary and spatially varying associations between hand, foot and mouth disease and multiple environmental factors: A Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping model study.

The transmission and prevalence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) are affected by a variety of natural and socio-economic environmental factors. This study aims to quantitatively investigate the non-stationary and spatially varying associations between various environmental factors and HFMD risk. We collected HFMD surveillance cases and a series of relevant environmental data from 2013 to 2021 in Xi'an, Northwest China. By controlling the spatial and temporal mixture effects of HFMD, we constructed a Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping model and characterized the impacts of different driving factors into global linear, non-stationary and spatially varying effects. The results showed that the impact of meteorological conditions on HFMD risk varies in both type and magnitude above certain thresholds (temperature: 30 °C, precipitation: 70 mm, solar radiation: 13000 kJ/m2, pressure: 945 hPa, humidity: 69%). Air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2) showed an inverted U-shaped relationship with the risk of HFMD, while other air pollutants (O3, SO2) showed nonlinear fluctuations. Moreover, the driving effect of increasing temperature on HFMD was significant in the 3-year period, while the inhibitory effect of increasing precipitation appeared evident in the 5-year period. In addition, the proportion of urban/suburban/rural area had a strong influence on HFMD, indicating that the incidence of HFMD firstly increased and then decreased during the rapid urbanization process. The influence of population density on HFMD was not only limited by spatial location, but also varied between high and low intervals. Higher road density inhibited the risk of HFMD, but higher night light index promoted the occurrence of HFMD. Our findings further demonstrated that both ecological and socioeconomic environmental factors can pose multiple driving effects on increasing the spatiotemporal risk of HFMD, which is of great significance for effectively responding to the changes in HFMD epidemic outbreaks.

Synergetic association between coxsackievirus A16 genotype evolution and recombinant form shifts.

Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) is a major pathogen that causes hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). The recombination form (RF) shifts and global transmission dynamics of CVA16 remain unknown. In this retrospective study, global sequences of CVA16 were retrieved from the GenBank database and analyzed using comprehensive phylogenetic inference, RF surveys, and population structure. A total of 1,663 sequences were collected, forming a 442-sequences dataset for VP1 coding region analysis and a 345-sequences dataset for RF identification. Based on the VP1 coding region used for serotyping, three genotypes (A, B, and D), two subgenotypes of genotype B (B1 and B2), and three clusters of subgenotype B1 (B1a, B1b, and B1c) were identified. Cluster B1b has dominated the global epidemics, B2 disappeared in 2000, and D is an emerging genotype dating back to August 2002. Globally, four oscillation phases of CVA16 evolution, with a peak in 2013, and three migration pathways were identified. Europe, China, and Japan have served as the seeds for the global transmission of CVA16. Based on the 3D coding region of the RFs, five clusters of RFs (RF-A to -E) were identified. The shift in RFs from RF-B and RF-C to RF-D was accompanied by a change in genotype from B2 to B1a and B1c and then to B1b. In conclusion, the evolution and population dynamics of CVA16, especially the coevolution of 3D and VP1 genes, revealed that genotype evolution and RF replacement were synergistic rather than stochastic.

Pathogenicity and landscape of differential gene expression in mice orally infected with clinical coxsackievirus A6 (CA6).

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is caused by more than 20 pathogenic enteroviruses belonging to the Picornaviridae family and Enterovirus genus. Since the introduction of the enterovirus-71 (EV71) vaccine in 2016, the number of HFMD cases caused by EV71 has decreased. However, cases of infections caused by other enteroviruses, such as coxsackievirus A6 (CA6) and coxsackievirus A10, have been increasing accordingly. In this study, we used a clinical isolate of CA6 to establish an intragastric infection mouse model using 7-day-old mice to mimic the natural transmission route, by which we investigated the differential gene expression profiles associated with virus infection and pathogenicity. After intragastric infection, mice exhibited hind limb paralysis symptoms and weight loss, similar to those reported for EV71 infection in mice. The skeletal muscle was identified as the main site of virus replication, with a peak viral load reaching 2.31 × 107 copies/mg at 5 dpi and increased infiltration of inflammatory cells. RNA sequencing analysis identified differentially expressed genes (DEGs) after CA6 infection. DEGs in the blood, muscle, brain, spleen, and thymus were predominantly enriched in immune system responses, including pathways such as Toll-like receptor signaling and PI3K-Akt signaling. Our study has unveiled the genes involved in the host immune response during CA6 infection, thereby enhancing our comprehension of the pathological mechanism of HFMD.IMPORTANCEThis study holds great significance for the field of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). It not only delves into the disease's etiology, transmission pathways, and severe complications but also establishes a novel mouse model that mimics the natural coxsackievirus A6 infection process, providing a pivotal platform to delve deeper into virus replication and pathogenic mechanisms. Additionally, utilizing RNA-seq technology, it unveils the dynamic gene expression changes during infection, offering valuable leads for identifying novel therapeutic drug targets. This research has the potential to enhance our understanding of HFMD, offering fresh perspectives for disease prevention and treatment and positively impacting children's health worldwide.

Study on the epidemiological characteristics of enterovirus among pediatric patients in Hangzhou, China: A comparison between the pre-COVID-19, COVID-19 pandemic, and post-COVID-19 periods.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) not only reduce the prevalence of this disease among children but also influence the transmission of other viruses. This retrospective study investigated the impact of NPIs on human enterovirus (HEV) infection in children diagnosed with hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) or herpangina (HA) in Hangzhou, China. We collected and analyzed the laboratory results and clinical data of children diagnosed with HFMD or HA during the following periods: pre-COVID-19 (January 2019 to December 2019), the COVID-19 pandemic (January 2020 to December 2022), and post-COVID-19 (January to December 2023). A total of 41 742 specimens that met the inclusion criteria were obtained, of which 1998 (4.79%) tested positive for enterovirus. In comparison to those in the pre-COVID-19 period, which had 695 (5.63%) HEV-positive specimens, the numbers dramatically decreased to 69 (1.19%), 398 (5.12%), and 112 (1.58%) in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, but significantly increased to 724 (8.27%) in 2023. Seasonal peaks of infections occurred in May, June, July, and August each year, with the total detection rate ranging from 2019 to 2023 being 9.41% in May, 22.47% in June, 28.23% in July, and 12.16% in August, respectively. The difference in the detection rates of HEV infection between males and females was statistically significant (p < 0.005), with 5.11% (1221/23 898) of males and 4.35% (777/17 844) of females testing positive, resulting in a male-to-female positive ratio of 1.57:1. Among the age groups, 11.25% (378/3360) of the children aged 3-5 years had the highest detection rate, which steadily decreased with increasing or decreasing age. The detection of HEV indicated that >95% of the viruses were other types than the previously commonly reported enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16). In conclusion, NPIs for COVID-19 may be effective at reducing the transmission of HEV. However, with the relaxation of NPIs, the detection rate of HEVs increased slowly to a certain extent. Active awareness and surveillance of the epidemiological characteristics of HEV are essential for preventing, controlling, and managing the development of HFMD and HA, as well as contributing to the development of a multivalent HFMD vaccine.

Emerging Enterovirus A71 Subgenogroup B5 Causing Severe Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease, Vietnam, 2023.

We report on a 2023 outbreak of severe hand, foot, and mouth disease in southern Vietnam caused by an emerging lineage of enterovirus A71 subgenogroup B5. Affected children were significantly older than those reported during previous outbreaks. The virus should be closely monitored to assess its potential for global dispersal.

Advances in anti-EV-A71 drug development research.

BACKGROUND: Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is capable of causing hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), which may lead to neurological sequelae and even death. As EV-A71 is resistant to environmental changes and mutates easily, there is still a lack of effective treatments or globally available vaccines. AIM OF REVIEW: For more than 50 years since the HFMD epidemic, related drug research has been conducted. Progress in this area can promote the further application of existing potential drugs and develop more efficient and safe antiviral drugs, and provide useful reference for protecting the younger generation and maintaining public health security. KEY SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS OF REVIEW: At present, researchers have identified hundreds of EV-A71 inhibitors based on screening repurposed drugs, targeted structural design, and rational modification of previously effective drugs as the main development strategies. This review systematically introduces the current potential drugs to inhibit EV-A71 infection, including viral inhibitors targeting key sites such as the viral capsid, RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), 2C protein, internal ribosome entry site (IRES), 3C proteinase (3Cpro), and 2A proteinase (2Apro), starting from each stage of the viral life cycle. Meanwhile, the progress of host-targeting antiviral drugs and their development are summarized in terms of regulating host immunity, inhibiting autophagy or apoptosis, and regulating the cellular redox environment. In addition, the current clinical methods for the prevention and treatment of HFMD are summarized and discussed with the aim of providing support and recommendations for the treatment of enterovirus infections including EV-A71.

Analysis of a SARIMA-XGBoost model for hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xinjiang, China.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infectious disease. The incidence of HFMD has a pronounced seasonal tendency and is closely related to meteorological factors such as temperature, rainfall, and wind speed. In this paper, we propose a combined SARIMA-XGBoost model to improve the prediction accuracy of HFMD in 15 regions of Xinjiang, China. The SARIMA model is used for seasonal trends, and the XGBoost algorithm is applied for the nonlinear effects of meteorological factors. The geographical and temporal weighted regression model is designed to analyze the influence of meteorological factors from temporal and spatial perspectives. The analysis results show that the HFMD exhibits seasonal characteristics, peaking from May to August each year, and the HFMD incidence has significant spatial heterogeneity. The meteorological factors affecting the spread of HFMD vary among regions. Temperature and daylight significantly impact the transmission of the disease in most areas. Based on the verification experiment of forecasting, the proposed SARIMA-XGBoost model is superior to other models in accuracy, especially in regions with a high incidence of HFMD.